This year's attendance
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Posted by ladye bigfathairyguy
#51

bigfathairyguy wrote:
I think one of the worst part about there being the mask mandate this year is that now it is up for debate next year as well. There is little on the horizon to say the overall state of things from a true health perspective will differ much next year from what we have this year. This just extended the time until Gencon gets their attendance back where they want it by having another year in 2023 where people threaten not to attend because there is or isn't a mask mandate. Basically I don't think this is the end of this and I think we will see low attendance next year as well.
 
The mask mandate may make more locals avoid it, since most places here don't require masking. We may not go next year if there is a mask mandate.

Posted by orionwiseman
#52

Judging by how sold out the premium events are, I think we still have a supply problem. I don’t expect to see attendance reach 2019 levels until the number of folks willing to travel and run games improves. I think it is too simple to just point at the health policies and say they are responsible if attendance is less.

I think it will take years for GenCon to grow back to its previous size… but as someone that has been going for years that is ok with me. I think the sweet spot of GenCon was right before it expanded into the football arena.

Posted by insane
#53

28,500 or less

Posted by quarex
#54

Posted by Insane

Posted by hahnarama
#55

Not to sound selfish but if we are at last yeas attendance I would be quite happy with thatt 

 

Posted by quarex
#56

I think it would be a very bad thing if we were, given the reduced financial benefit to smaller numbers, but fortunately that seems basically impossible given the return to form of event numbers and other things missing last year returning

Posted by kevinrg
#57

The way my luck is going the last few days, there might be one less participant.  The gaming gods are giving me signs or something..  in the last week  I've had to replace my brakes, deal with a food related illness and the topper, a wasp flew up my pants and stung me 7 times before I could get my pants off.

Posted by kevinrg
#58

I will say attendance probably will be 45000 +/-.  I pulled old 2018/2019 event spreadsheets and summed up max participants for events and subtracted tickets available to get total number of event tickets sold, divided that by the attendance #'s I could find and came up with roughly 3 events per person (2019 was like 2.87 and 2018 3.09).   Pulling the 2022 spreadsheet and doing the same thing, but dividing sold tickets by 3, I came up with about 46k

Yes, I'm bored.

 

Posted by austicke
#59

Very cool analysis. It'd be better to use tickets sold though.

Posted by kevinrg austicke
#60

austicke wrote:
Very cool analysis. It'd be better to use tickets sold though.

I did.   Had to get # of tickets sold by summing up max participants less total available since the sheets don't have total sold so I could use that to get an event/attendee factor.

 

Posted by austicke
#61

Aha. I missed that. Nicely done.

Posted by bigfathairyguy
#62

I like the math though if I were betting I would definitely take the under off the 46k number. If the event average goes to 4 you are looking at attendance of 34,500 if I understand the math you are doing. A couple things that I think would drive up the average number of events attended are...

1. Lack of hot games this year versus 2018/2019
2. Lack of locals attending who just wander through the exhibit hall
3. Number of companies in the exhibit hall who now put zero dollar tickets in as events to do at demo at their booths.
4. Number of people who are attending that are still concerned about covid exposure so they book more events

But maybe I am wrong. If 2021 numbers were around 3 events then the math is probably right. But I think you need to take that into account to forecast 2022 numbers.

Posted by general lopez kevinrg
#63

kevinrg wrote:
I will say attendance probably will be 45000 +/-.  I pulled old 2018/2019 event spreadsheets and summed up max participants for events and subtracted tickets available to get total number of event tickets sold, divided that by the attendance #'s I could find and came up with roughly 3 events per person (2019 was like 2.87 and 2018 3.09).   Pulling the 2022 spreadsheet and doing the same thing, but dividing sold tickets by 3, I came up with about 46k
Yes, I'm bored.
 

I agree with that number, it also lines up with other conventions that have had mandates with around a 30% drop in attendance.  
 

Posted by hahnarama
#64

I'm still hoping for low numbers :)

Posted by mikeboozer
#65

I can't say much, but our numbers are looking very good.

Will Call will be busy this year. Make sure you get your Wrist Band from Sagamore 7 on Wednesday before you get in line!

Mike

 

Posted by kevinrg bigfathairyguy
#66

bigfathairyguy wrote:
I like the math though if I were betting I would definitely take the under off the 46k number. If the event average goes to 4 you are looking at attendance of 34,500 if I understand the math you are doing. A couple things that I think would drive up the average number of events attended 

Couldn't find a 2021 spreadsheet, but that was such an outlier I threw that out.   2017-2019 was roughly 3 and 2014-2016 was roughly 2.5.  To bounce to 4 you probably would need those factors you mentioned to be in play and I'd expect a lot less 1 day badges sold (since I'm guessing more 1 day badges would drive down event/attendee numbers)

With all the factors, I'll say 47500 seems about right.   Low 50 wouldn't be super shocking.  I'd be shocked at 35K though.   

Posted by hobbun
#67

I can't speak for attendance, but if it's lower its not showing in easy accessibility for events. I have never had as much issue as this year in getting PFS events. 

I got one ticket because I was continually checking the catalog for returns and tickets for the Saturday night Special only because they opened more tables.

Have never had as much difficulty before this year.

Posted by brooks hobbun
#68

hobbun wrote:
I can't speak for attendance, but if it's lower its not showing in easy accessibility for events. I have never had as much issue as this year in getting PFS events. 
I got one ticket because I was continually checking the catalog for returns and tickets for the Saturday night Special only because they opened more tables.
Have never had as much difficulty before this year.

I wonder if there are a lot fewer Society events this year. Just going by the space, the used to take over the entire Sagamore Ballroom. This year it looks like they only have about half of that space. 

Posted by brumcg
#69

When I looked at the data on June 1, Pathfinder went from 5521 seats in 2019 to 1916 seats in 2022.

I do think it's possible that they new about the GM shortage before most publishers did.

Posted by armadilloal brooks
#70

brooks wrote:
hobbun wrote:
I can't speak for attendance, but if it's lower its not showing in easy accessibility for events. I have never had as much issue as this year in getting PFS events. 
I got one ticket because I was continually checking the catalog for returns and tickets for the Saturday night Special only because they opened more tables.
Have never had as much difficulty before this year.

I wonder if there are a lot fewer Society events this year. Just going by the space, the used to take over the entire Sagamore Ballroom. This year it looks like they only have about half of that space. 

Gen Con took that space for the vaccine check stations.  Whether they put the vaccine stations there because they knew Paizo wouldn't need the whole ballroom or Paizo didn't get the whole ballroom because the vaccine stations were there, I couldn't tell you.

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