Wouldn't even need a box.
Amazon even sells UV wands that work at 99.9% effectiveness just by waving it... even the best wands are only about $80.
G
A lot of comments on the gaming aspect refer to demo-ing, I’m more curious as to the event type games that aren’t commercial/“selling you on wanting to buy new stuff” in nature. How would RPG gaming events be handled? Miniatures games? Board Games? Somehow I don’t see a Catan tournament as a feasible thing...or a Magic the Gathering tourney...is spacing gamers 6 feet in something like that practical or even possible? How many tables would be allowable in rooms that normally hold dozens or hundreds? Would it make the cost of using those spaces justifiable? I’m not saying it can’t be done, but what would the events look like if they had to meet ICC (or other event space) guidelines?
You are assuming - incorrectly I would say - that the usual 60-70k + people would be there. I would assume close to maybe 20 or 25k and that would be at the high end and that would allow for lots of ingenious spacing. And reminder that 6 feet is without a mask or face covering directive. It calms down a bit with masks...
G
bring a smaller portable then yourself. Only $25 on Amazon...
G
Numbers are even better today. Obviously we need to be cautious about this and tomorrow could turn out to be different, but the trend is in a great direction!
409 people tested positive out of 4,259. Lots of people now being tested and the overall number is staying around 10% positive of those tested.
ICU bed usage has been very consistent at 17.1% It has been around 17% for the month which tells us that the worst of the worst are not increasing. That is great news.
Deaths of people below 50 are still around 3% and people between 50-60 remains at 5.8%. They don't track people with pre-existing conditions so I can't filter out those people. All in all, if you are under 50 and in normal health your odds of death look incredibly low. This is great news and we have enough data to validate now.
To summarize a bit. 16% of people that tested positive for COVID make up almost 90% of all the deaths. That is people 60 and over. I would LOVE to factor in those with pre-existing conditions on top of this, but alas I can't. 16% makes up almost 90%. WOW!!!
I don't want to get overly optimistic, and realize that a spike could occur, but the data so far is looking very very good.
But if mortality is anywhere close to those numbers stated, it just highlights the fact that we need to keep up social distancing, because if the disease were to spread and have anywhere close to a 3% fatality rate it would be absolutely catastrophic. Those numbers are awful. What that combined with the 10% positive rate means is that we still aren't adequately testing. We need to have a detected fatality rate closer to 1%, and likely a positive rate of what South Korea and Germany are seeing of closer to 1-2% in order to be more confident we are truly catching infected people early so they don't spread it.
Numbers going down right now, while good, aren't really very indicative of if "opening up" will work. Again this isn't some hurricane we need to just weather. If we assume the 3-6% fatality rate is high because infections are under reported by a factor, then there's people who if went out in society would yet again begin spreading the disease in greater numbers, and then we're in a worse position than we are today. We need adequate testing and people need to take distancing and preventative measures seriously for there to be hope of opening up anytime soon. But there's going to be a delay in metrics, really what the death numbers are telling us is how many people were infected 2 weeks ago, and the infection numbers also lag behind changes to social behavior.
I don't think you can accurately assume any attendance number this year. If it happens it'll be a total crapshoot. But, based on anecdotal evidence of people I know who go to gencon every year, all of them are still on board with going.
I guess what my question would be is what are the “ingenious” spacing ideas? I’m interested in seeing what ideas are out there to meet the spacing (and other) requirements in the ICC guidelines they posted a few days ago, no matter how many attendees there are or aren’t. I'm not really for or against Gen Con taking place. I'm just interested in what it would look like if it did take place, and gaming events are kind of a cornerstone of a gaming convention. What would gaming look like at a gaming convention during the pandemic? I suppose this applies to any gaming convention, Gen Con or one down the street.
Currently 16% of those that test positive make up 90% of the mortality rate. Again anyone who dies is horrible, you and I agree on that. This demographic is people over 60 and we don't know how many have pre-existing conditions. So again, I can only use the data that I have on hand, and can't project into the future, but the data after being open for a week and a half has trended better.
The odds of a healthy person under the age of 50 dying from this is remarkably low.
I keep saying that I only report the numbers and they are what they are. If we see a massive uptick like some are predicting, then we should by all means pivot on this. Also the odds of needing hospitalization for a healthy person under 50 appears to be very low. If that changes, which I doubt it will because we have a ton of data now, then again we should pivot.
Lastly, I want to say that I don't fault anyone who is not comfortable going to anything right now. I just also think the opposite should be true. People shouldn't fault someone who is still going. Especially if they are under 50, and healthy.
[This post has been removed]
[This post has been removed]
The odds of a healthy person under the age of 50 dying from this is remarkably low.
Done with the numbers game. Take your number and predictions to your social media channel. They're not Gen Con specific enough as you are using national data.
We're not going to get in a discussion/slash argument about whose right or wrong and what numbers to use.
Mike
Which is part of the problem. Even if things look amazing in early July, by the time the convention actually happens things could have been going completely sideways for weeks, and it may finally be noticed in the numbers right before showtime.
Which brings me to deaths. Yes, it is well known that this seems to impact the elderly at a much higher rate than younger people, but it's not without risk. Even 3% is shockingly high. In the event it were to be spread around a convention (Gencon or otherwise), I see that problem as fourfold;
- 1: some attendees are indeed within that risk range. Is Gencon even legally able to set a restriction on that? I imagine that would fall under discrimination laws, so even if it's suggested strongly, if the con happens, I don't think they can demand ID and turn away anyone over a certain age.
- ii: were younger people to be infected, they may indeed have a much better chance of surviving. But that won't necessarily save the others they come into contact with. Ideally they wouldn't be going home to hug grandma and grandpa right off the plane, but if a con became a substantial transmission vector, it'd be yet another concern.
- C: Simply getting it but surviving may still require medical attention, which puts further strain on the local medical system (even if it's after the convention is over, hundreds or thousands of new cases springing up across the US or globe isn't going to help things). With fewer resources to go around, some deaths that should have been preventable aren't anymore. If there are 20 ICU beds and 50 patients that need ICU treatment, some of those who could or would have been saved might not be able to get the care that should have saved their life.
- 4: we continue to learn more and more about the disease and its effects on the body. It is being reported that while the manner of infection is through the respiratory system, some of the damage done appears to be to the circulatory system. Manifesting as clotting within the body and possibly leading to heart attacks and strokes in people far younger than one would normally assume for such an event. We simply don't know the outcome here. It may not simply be '1-3% die and everyone else either avoids it or gets immunity'. If it leaves lasting damage on the respiratory and/or circulatory system, that could lead to further health problems and a shortened lifespan for survivors. I don't offer this as an absolute, but it is being studied and it's too early to say one way or another.
Sure, it might not kill many people under 50. But we're still figuring out if it might just make it that much less likely for those survivors to see 50 themselves, even if just due to being weakened against other conditions they incur (related or not as they are to COVID itself).
There are a lot of factors to consider with an easily transmittable virus like this. That you or I may well survive it without any long term effects may be of little help or comfort to someone else we crossed paths with.
This seems to a well sourced article dealing with case studies done on situations where the disease was contracted by others due to exposure. Based on that read, being in close proximity to someone who is contagious (even if currently asymptomatic) could carry a risk. Being outdoors (or in a large well ventilated space) may reduce that some, but simply being around a breathing carrier (let alone talking to them or around one who is shouting, even with basic protective masks) can carry risk.
Or how unfair the housing system is and how we need to fix it.
