roganca wrote:
Spreading out into local restaurants is both implausible and unnecessary.
You want social distancing? Look at the housing block. Connected hotels are still sold out, and for downtown hotels only the Hilton Garden Inn has rooms (it's only 5 blocks away!). Everything else... wide open.
The attendance at this year's Con looks to be in the 20k-25k range, going off of hotel occupancy. And you can bet there will be a raft of cancellations before the June 8 deposit deadline.
I think some form of social distancing -- 3 or 4 feet? -- will be easily achievable without any extra space if attendance is 33% of usual.
If that is correct (I'm not convinced that's going to be a precise figure, but for argument's sake let's run with it); can Gencon even afford the Convention Center and all the costs associated with setting up, staffing, and running the event, on ~1/3 of their usual budget?
Again, not a sincere question, but something that may well be a crucial factor in how hard they're able to push to make it happen, or are waiting for their hand to be forced by the city or state. Just from my meager experiences working with a major (Canadian) real estate management firm, a 10 or 20% haircut on income would be bad. Half or less would likely be a killing blow from a budgetary perspective. Unless they were making money hand over fist, I'm doubting that going from record setting attendance (and thus, ticket sales, cash from event tickets, merch, etc) to 1/2 or 1/4 or whatever is going to be done without a (figuratively) audible clunk from the fiscal engine that makes our beloved event possible falling out.
The lack of event scheduling is, imo, indicative of the problems they/we face, but also a good sign that those issues are being taken seriously. The question becomes a very 'unstoppable force vs immovable object' kind of thing. They need events to be sorted out and lined up for this to all realistically come together, but with a fluid situation it's difficult (if not actively counterproductive) to try to forge ahead as usual. The question becomes when is the last date that they can realistically get companies and individuals to commit to running events, and then get the event system queued up for people to buy in.
Some of that, I imagine, is going to tie to the big names like True Dungeon and Paizo (probably don't need to spend on holding things in the stadium if TD is out and attendance is expected to take a bit of a stumble). As was noted in previous posts, that could become a series of dominoes; with fewer big draw events/names presenting, fewer people are likely to attend, which only increases the likelihood of more vendors/big name guests dropping out, which reduces attendance, and then we're (imo) definitely back at an 'is attendance below the financial feasibility threshold' issue.
Like, if 20,000 people show up, physical distancing becomes a lot less of an issue, but can they even afford to run a reduced event (especially one that could become a PR disaster if COVID becomes an issue tied back to the event)?
To avoid confusion, I'm simply trying to reflect on the various things pushing and pulling everyone; Gencon itself, the vendors, the attendees, the city overall. I don't envy anyone trying to thread this particular needle. To do the right thing for as many as possible. I find it to be an interesting conversation to have with likeminded folks, and ever since my first Gencon back in 2015, I've felt confident that the team will do what is best for the communities involved (Gamers and Indianapolis alike).
As noted before, we need to be patient. And I am. And part of that is shooting the sh... breeze with y'all.