I have to say I don't really see the point in the epidemiology data; it's good for a scare, but to get from the data we have to any kind of prediction for August you've got to have a model, and as noted, the models we have haven't proven to be all that accurate. Alternately, we could do the dueling organization game, where one side points out all the conventions that have already cancelled, while the other side points out that Carnival Cruises has announced it's starting up cruises again as of August 1 (https://news.yahoo.com/carnival-restart-cruises-florida-texas-140016618.html); ultimately, that's just noise, and not very illustrative of the underlying issues involved.
If I'm in charge of GenCon, what makes my decision for me are the answers to a number of sub-questions:
- Are there policies and/or procedures that would make a large gathering safe enough to run?
For example, how frequently would public spaces need to be disinfected (things like the handrails on escalators and stairways)? Is the ICC providing that service, or would we need to have some of our volunteers do that? It might be possible to reduce the number of tables in some gaming rooms to enforce distancing between tables, but would that reduce the overall capacity for running games so that some events would need to be cancelled? For events that don't allow table distancing (like LARPs), would we put the onus on the event organizer to enforce rules on distancing and protective equipment, or would we just not allow those events this year? How much would eliminating certain events hit the expected attendance?
- Given concerns over the virus and other health issues, are there going to be enough volunteers to run the convention?
Certainly, some volunteers have likely already withdrawn from the convention, even if it does go on as scheduled, due to health concerns. Is the remaining volunteer staff going to be enough to run a convention for the number of badges sold? What if announcing that the convention is actually going to happen causes a sudden surge in badge sales? Attendees would likely cut the con a significant amount of slack this year given the circumstances, but a bad customer experience is still a bad customer experience, and the con wants to limit those as much as possible.
- What do you do about people who refuse to follow the health guidelines?
If you thought enforcing costume 'peacebonding' policies or other safety concerns was challenging, what about this issue, which for some con-goers will be literally life-or-death? If the con says it's going on, and announces health policies that it expects all attendees to abide by, and then a significant number of con-goers simply don't abide, what then? Is the security staff at the ICC going to be sufficient? Will the Indy police have to be called in? If the con needs to contract officers to supplement the security force (because that's how it works when you have a potential issue you know about in advance), how does the con pay for that?
There's way more specific and relevant points to be considered then what the Colts schedule is going to look like or what other events may be happening in and around the Indy area on the weekend of the convention. Having a civil conversation around those topics is likely to be much more helpful and productive than simply gasping about models (and would actually be on-topic for the thread).